Several factors worsen the prognosis of hospitalized patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). Little is known about the specific contribution of age. Study aim was to evaluate the impact of age on early mortality (90-days).
Methods: this observational prospective study considered hospitalized AECOPD patients. Three groups were created according to tertiles of age distribution: group 1 (≤ 67 years), group 2 (68-76 years) and group 3 (≥ 77 years). Baseline, clinical, microbiological, gas analysis and laboratory variables were collected at admission. The primary outcome was mortality at 90 days from admission. Multivariate regression models and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the predictive power of age versus early mortality and adjusted for gender, comorbidities, staging and disease severity.
Results: we enrolled 449 patients, 33 (7%) of whom died within 90 days from admission. Older patients were predominantly male, with more comorbidities, and higher dyspnoea grade and disease severity. The multivariate logistic regression demonstrated a significant predictive role of age as a continuous variable [odds ratio (OR) 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.10; p = 0.046]. The Cox regression analysis found that group 2 [hazard ratio (HR) 6.6; 95% CI 1.5-28.8; p = 0.013], group 3 (HR 7.2; 95% CI 1.6-32.6; p = 0.010) and acute severe hypoxemia at admission (HR 2.7; 95% CI 1.2-6; p = 0.012) were independent significant predictors of mortality. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed a significant role of age in cumulative survival (Gehan-Breslow-Wilcoxon test p = 0.010). ROC curves highlighted 70 years as the best discriminating cut-off.
Conclusions: age is a determinant of worse prognosis among hospitalized patients with AECOPD.
Keywords: Acute exacerbation; Age; Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; Early mortality; Prognosis.