Efficient and Accurate Inference of Mixed Microbial Population Trajectories from Longitudinal Count Data

Abstract

The recently completed second phase of the Human Microbiome Project has highlighted the relationship between dynamic changes in the microbiome and disease, motivating new microbiome study designs based on longitudinal sampling. Yet, analysis of such data is hindered by presence of technical noise, high dimensionality, and data sparsity. Here, we introduce LUMINATE (longitudinal microbiome inference and zero detection), a fast and accurate method for inferring relative abundances from noisy read count data. We demonstrate that LUMINATE is orders of magnitude faster than current approaches, with better or similar accuracy. We further show that LUMINATE can accurately distinguish biological zeros, when a taxon is absent from the community, from technical zeros, when a taxon is below the detection threshold. We conclude by demonstrating the utility of LUMINATE on a real dataset, showing that LUMINATE smooths trajectories observed from noisy data. LUMINATE is freely available from https://github.com/tyjo/luminate.

Keywords: 16S; longitudinal; microbiome; time-series; variational inference.