Using the 260 geographical distribution records of Polygonatum cyrtonema in China, combined with 53 environmental factors, the maximum entropy modeling(MaxEnt) was used to study the ecological factors affecting the suitability distribution of P. cyrtonema. The ArcGIS software was used to predict the potential distribution of the population of P. cyrtonema. The dominant factors were chosen by using the Jackknife test and the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) curve was used to evaluate the simulation. The results showed that high value of area under curve(AUC) denoted good results, which significantly differed from random predictions. Based on the evaluation criterion, the accuracies of the predictions of P. cyrtonema potential distribution in the current periods were excellent. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable growth of P. cyrtonema were the monthly precipitation, the wettest monthly precipitation, the annual average temperature range and the precipitation of November, March, February, April, May and October. There are 9 environmental factors in soil type. The potential fitness of P. cyrtonema in China is high, mainly concentra-ted in Hunan, western Hubei, Guangdong, northeastern Guangxi, southeastern Guizhou, Jiangxi, southwestern Anhui, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shaanxi, southwestern Henan and Chongqing. The growth distribution of the potential distribution area of P. cyrtonema was divided, and the zoning map of the growth suitability of P. cyrtonema was formed. Through the comparative analysis of the potential distribution range based on MaxEnt and the distribution range of literature records, the understanding of the distribution range of P. cyrtonema was expanded.
Keywords: ArcGIS; Polygonatum cyrtonema; maximum entropy modeling; potential distribution.