Abstract
The recent emergence of a coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), first identified in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019, has had major public health and economic consequences. Although 61,888 confirmed cases were reported in Brazil by 28 April 2020, little is known about the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in this country. To better understand the recent epidemic in the second most populous state in southeast Brazil - Minas Gerais (MG) - we sequenced 40 complete SARS-CoV-2 genomes from MG cases and examined epidemiological data from three Brazilian states. Both the genome analyses and the geographical distribution of reported cases indicate for multiple independent introductions into MG. Epidemiological estimates of the reproductive number (R) using different data sources and theoretical assumptions suggest the potential for sustained virus transmission despite a reduction in R from the first reported case to the end of April 2020. The estimated date of SARS-CoV-2 introduction into Brazil was consistent with epidemiological data from the first case of a returned traveller from Lombardy, Italy. These findings highlight the nature of the COVID-19 epidemic in MG and reinforce the need for real-time and continued genomic surveillance strategies to better understand and prepare for the epidemic spread of emerging viral pathogens..
Keywords:
Minas Gerais; SARS-CoV-2; genomic epidemiology; genomic surveillance; pandemic; sequencing; southeast Brazil.
MeSH terms
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Adult
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Aged
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Betacoronavirus / genetics*
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Brazil / epidemiology
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COVID-19
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Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
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Coronavirus Infections / transmission*
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Female
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Genome, Viral*
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Geography
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Humans
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Male
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Middle Aged
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Pandemics
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Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
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Pneumonia, Viral / transmission*
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SARS-CoV-2
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Whole Genome Sequencing
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Young Adult
Grants and funding
This work was supported by the Pan American World Health Organization (VPGDI-003-FIO-19-2-2-30). M.G. is supported by Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ). V.F. and T.d.O. are supported by the South African Medical Research Council (MRC-RFA-UFSP-01-2013/UKZN HIVEPI) and the NIH H3AbioNet network, which is an initiative of the Human Health and Heredity in Africa Consortium (H3Africa). E.C.H. is supported by an Australian Research Council Australian Laureate Fellowship (FL170100022). J.L. is supported by a lectureship from the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford. J.X. and F.I. are supported by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil (CAPES) – Finance Code 001. F.I. is also supported by Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG). A.S. has a scholarship from ZIKA - Announcement MCTIC/FNDCT-CNPq/MEC-CAPES/MS-Decit /No. 14/2016 - Prevention and Fight against Zika Virus. M.T.L. is supported by Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPQ). V.A. has a grant from the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)(#88887.506611/202-00). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, writing and/or decision to publish the manuscript.