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. 2020 Jul 14;11(18):5527-5535.
doi: 10.7150/jca.46563. eCollection 2020.

A Predictive Nomogram for Early Death of Metastatic Gastric Cancer: A Retrospective Study in the SEER Database and China

Ying Zhu  1 , Xiongfeng Fang  2 , Lanqing Wang  1 , Tao Zhang  1 , Dandan Yu  1
Affiliations
Free PMC article

A Predictive Nomogram for Early Death of Metastatic Gastric Cancer: A Retrospective Study in the SEER Database and China

Ying Zhu et al. J Cancer. .
Free PMC article

Abstract

Background: To identify associated risk factors and develop a predictive nomogram for the early death of metastatic gastric cancer patients. Methods: A total of 4575 patients in the SEER cohort and 220 patients in the Chinese cohort diagnosed with metastatic gastric cancer in our Cancer Center were obtained. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify independent risk variables for early death. A predictive nomogram and a web-based probability calculator were developed and then validated by receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve and calibration plot in a Chinese cohort. Results: Eight independent variables, including race, grade, surgery, chemotherapy, and metastases of bone, brain, liver, lung were recognized by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models for identifying independent risk variables of early death about metastatic gastric cancer patients. By comprising these variables, a predictive nomogram and a web-based probability calculator were constructed in the SEER cohort. Then, it could be validated well in the Chinese cohort by receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve and calibration plot. Conclusion: Using this nomogram model provided an insightful and applicable tool to distinguish the early death of metastatic gastric cancer patients.

Keywords: Early death; Nomogram; SEER; Stage IV; Stomach neoplasm.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interest exists.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The predictive nomogram for the early death of metastatic gastric cancer patients in the SEER database.
Figure 2
Figure 2
ROC curves and calibration plots for the nomogram. (A) The ROC curve for the nomogram in the SEER cohort; (B) the ROC curve for the nomogram in the Chinese cohort; (C) the calibration plots for the nomogram in the SEER cohort; (D) the calibration plots for the nomogram in the Chinese cohort.
Figure 3
Figure 3
A web-based probability calculator. White patients with a poorly or differentiated grade, bone metastasis, chemotherapy and without brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, surgery showed in the web probability calculator. (A) The graphical summary showed a rough range. (B) Numerical Summary showed the early death probability and its 95% confidence interval.
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