Deceased donors as nondirected donors in kidney paired donation

Am J Transplant. 2021 Jan;21(1):103-113. doi: 10.1111/ajt.16268. Epub 2020 Sep 19.


As proof of concept, we simulate a revised kidney allocation system that includes deceased donor (DD) kidneys as chain-initiating kidneys (DD-CIK) in a kidney paired donation pool (KPDP), and estimate potential increases in number of transplants. We consider chains of length 2 in which the DD-CIK gives to a candidate in the KPDP, and that candidate's incompatible donor donates to theDD waitlist. In simulations, we vary initial pool size, arrival rates of candidate/donor pairs and (living) nondirected donors (NDDs), and delay time from entry to the KPDP until a candidate is eligible to receive a DD-CIK. Using data on candidate/donor pairs and NDDs from the Alliance for Paired Kidney Donation, and the actual DDs from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) data, simulations extend over 2 years. With an initial pool of 400, respective candidate and NDD arrival rates of 2 per day and 3 per month, and delay times for access to DD-CIK of 6 months or less, including DD-CIKs increases the number of transplants by at least 447 over 2 years, and greatly reduces waiting times of KPDP candidates. Potential effects on waitlist candidates are discussed as are policy and ethical issues.

Keywords: donors and donation: deceased; donors and donation: paired exchange; health services and outcomes research; kidney transplantation/ nephrology; simulation; statistics.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Donor Selection
  • Humans
  • Kidney
  • Kidney Transplantation*
  • Living Donors
  • Tissue and Organ Procurement*