Development of nomograms to predict therapeutic response and prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with anti-PD-1 antibody

doi:10.1007/s00262-020-02710-9

Multicenter Study

. 2021 Feb;70(2):533-546.

doi: 10.1007/s00262-020-02710-9. Epub 2020 Aug 27.

Development of nomograms to predict therapeutic response and prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with anti-PD-1 antibody

Shijin Yuan¹, Yan Xia¹, Lihong Shen², Liuqing Ye³, Lisha Li⁴, Lifen Chen⁵, Xinyou Xie¹, Haizhou Lou⁶, Jun Zhang⁷

Affiliations

¹ Department of Clinical Laboratory, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 3 Qingchun East Road, Jianggan District, Hangzhou, 310016, China.
² Department of Clinical Laboratory, Jinhua Municipal Central Hospital, Jinhua, China.
³ Department of Clinical Laboratory, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Hangzhou, China.
⁴ Department of Clinical Laboratory, First People's Hospital of Wenling, Wenzhou, China.
⁵ Department of Clinical Laboratory, Lishui City People's Hospital, Lishui, China.
⁶ Department of Oncology, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
⁷ Department of Clinical Laboratory, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 3 Qingchun East Road, Jianggan District, Hangzhou, 310016, China. jameszhang2000@zju.edu.cn.

PMID: 32852602
DOI: 10.1007/s00262-020-02710-9

Multicenter Study

Development of nomograms to predict therapeutic response and prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with anti-PD-1 antibody

Shijin Yuan et al. Cancer Immunol Immunother. 2021 Feb.

. 2021 Feb;70(2):533-546.

doi: 10.1007/s00262-020-02710-9. Epub 2020 Aug 27.

Authors

Shijin Yuan¹, Yan Xia¹, Lihong Shen², Liuqing Ye³, Lisha Li⁴, Lifen Chen⁵, Xinyou Xie¹, Haizhou Lou⁶, Jun Zhang⁷

Affiliations

¹ Department of Clinical Laboratory, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 3 Qingchun East Road, Jianggan District, Hangzhou, 310016, China.
² Department of Clinical Laboratory, Jinhua Municipal Central Hospital, Jinhua, China.
³ Department of Clinical Laboratory, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Hangzhou, China.
⁴ Department of Clinical Laboratory, First People's Hospital of Wenling, Wenzhou, China.
⁵ Department of Clinical Laboratory, Lishui City People's Hospital, Lishui, China.
⁶ Department of Oncology, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
⁷ Department of Clinical Laboratory, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 3 Qingchun East Road, Jianggan District, Hangzhou, 310016, China. jameszhang2000@zju.edu.cn.

PMID: 32852602
DOI: 10.1007/s00262-020-02710-9

Abstract

Background: Anti-programmed death-1 (PD-1) antibody changed the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), however, reliable predictive markers were lacking. We aimed to explore factors associated with response and survival, and develop predictive models.

Methods: This multicenter retrospective study included a training cohort (n = 92) and validation cohort (n = 111) with NSCLC patients received anti-PD-1 antibody monotherapy in eight Chinese hospitals, and a control cohort (n = 124) with NSCLC patients received chemotherapy. Logistic and Cox models were used to identify factors associated with response and survival respectively. Nomograms were developed based on significant factors, and evaluated by Concordance-index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve.

Result: In training cohort, smoking history (P = 0.027) and higher absolute lymphocyte count (P = 0.038) were associated with response. Female (P < 0.001), age ≥ 65 years (P = 0.004) and higher lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, P < 0.001) were associated with shorter progression-free survival (PFS). Higher LDH (P < 0.001) and derived neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (P = 0.035) were associated with poorer overall survival (OS). While these factors were nonsignificant in chemotherapy cohort. Three nomograms to predict response at 6-week after treatment, PFS and OS at 6-, 12- and 18-months were developed, and validated in validation cohort. The C-indices of each nomogram in both cohorts were as follow (training vs validation): 0.706 vs 0.701; 0.728 vs 0.701; 0.741 vs 0.709; respectively. AUC showed a good discriminative ability. Calibration curves demonstrated a consistence between actual results and predictions.

Conclusion: We developed predictive nomograms based on easily available factors to help clinicians early assess response and prognosis for NSCLC patients received anti-PD-1 antibody.

Keywords: Anti-PD-1 antibody; Immunotherapy; Nomogram; Non-small cell lung cancer; Predictive factors.

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References

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[1] Chen W, Zheng R, Baade PD, Zhang S, Zeng H, Bray F, Jemal A, Yu XQ, He J (2016) Cancer statistics in China, 2015. CA Cancer J Clin 66:115–132. https://doi.org/10.3322/caac.21338 - DOI - PubMed

[2] Chen W, Zheng R, Baade PD, Zhang S, Zeng H, Bray F, Jemal A, Yu XQ, He J (2016) Cancer statistics in China, 2015. CA Cancer J Clin 66:115–132. https://doi.org/10.3322/caac.21338 - DOI - PubMed

[3] Travis WD, Brambilla E, Nicholson AG et al (2015) The 2015 World Health Organization Classification of Lung Tumors: impact of genetic, clinical and radiologic advances since the 2004 classification. J Thorac Oncol 10:1243–1260. https://doi.org/10.1097/JTO.0000000000000630 - DOI - PubMed

[4] Travis WD, Brambilla E, Nicholson AG et al (2015) The 2015 World Health Organization Classification of Lung Tumors: impact of genetic, clinical and radiologic advances since the 2004 classification. J Thorac Oncol 10:1243–1260. https://doi.org/10.1097/JTO.0000000000000630 - DOI - PubMed

[5] Brahmer J, Reckamp KL, Baas P et al (2015) Nivolumab versus docetaxel in advanced squamous-cell non-small-cell lung cancer. N Engl J Med 373:123–135. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1504627 - DOI - PubMed - PMC

[6] Brahmer J, Reckamp KL, Baas P et al (2015) Nivolumab versus docetaxel in advanced squamous-cell non-small-cell lung cancer. N Engl J Med 373:123–135. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1504627 - DOI - PubMed - PMC

[7] Borghaei H, Paz-Ares L, Horn L et al (2015) Nivolumab versus docetaxel in advanced non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer. N Engl J Med 373:1627–1639. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1507643 - DOI - PubMed - PMC

[8] Borghaei H, Paz-Ares L, Horn L et al (2015) Nivolumab versus docetaxel in advanced non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer. N Engl J Med 373:1627–1639. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1507643 - DOI - PubMed - PMC

[9] Herbst RS, Baas P, Kim DW et al (2016) Pembrolizumab versus docetaxel for previously treated, PD-L1-positive, advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (KEYNOTE-010): a randomized controlled trial. Lancet 387:1540–1550. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01281-7 - DOI - PubMed

[10] Herbst RS, Baas P, Kim DW et al (2016) Pembrolizumab versus docetaxel for previously treated, PD-L1-positive, advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (KEYNOTE-010): a randomized controlled trial. Lancet 387:1540–1550. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01281-7 - DOI - PubMed

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Development of nomograms to predict therapeutic response and prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with anti-PD-1 antibody

Affiliations

Development of nomograms to predict therapeutic response and prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with anti-PD-1 antibody

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Abstract

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