The current rise of protectionism has become the main uncertainty associated with global energy, economy, and the environment. Furthermore, the decoupling carbon emissions from economic growth is crucial for implementing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). These INDCs would be discounted if decreasing carbon emissions would require sacrificing economic growth. This study explored the effect of protectionism (by measuring trade openness based on available data) on the decoupling carbon emissions from economic growth. For this, the heterogenous effects of trade openness on carbon emissions were investigated using in data of 182 countries from 1990 to 2015. The results show that trade openness decreased carbon emissions in high-income and upper-middle-income countries, while having no significant impact on carbon emissions of lower-middle-income countries; even worse, for low-income countries, trade openness increased carbon emissions. The heterogeneous effects of trade openness on carbon emissions indicate that trade openness positively impacts the decoupling economic growth from carbon emission in rich countries, but negatively impacts poor countries. In addition, increasing individual incomes and population distort the decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions. Renewable energy and high oil prices contributed to the decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions. These effects are similar in all countries. Targeted policy implications are presented that enable the decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions for countries with different income levels.
Keywords: Carbon emissions; Decoupling; Income level; Oil price; Renewable energy; Trade openness.
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