The first two months epidimiological study of COVID-19, related public health preparedness, and response to the ongoing epidemic in Pakistan

M A Kakakhel; F Wu; T A Khan; H Feng; Z Hassan; Z Anwar; S Faisal; I Ali; W Wang

doi:10.1016/j.nmni.2020.100734

The first two months epidimiological study of COVID-19, related public health preparedness, and response to the ongoing epidemic in Pakistan

New Microbes New Infect. 2020 Jul 31:37:100734. doi: 10.1016/j.nmni.2020.100734. eCollection 2020 Sep.

Authors

M A Kakakhel¹, F Wu^{1

2

3}, T A Khan⁴, H Feng¹, Z Hassan⁵, Z Anwar⁶, S Faisal¹, I Ali⁷, W Wang^{1

2

3}

Affiliations

¹ MOE Key Laboratory of Cell Activities and Stress Adaptations, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, PR China.
² National Research Center for Conservation of Ancient Wall Paintings and Earthen Sites, Conservation Institute, Dunhuang Academy, Dunhuang, Gansu, 736200, PR China.
³ Key Scientific Research Base of Conservation for Ancient Mural, State Administration for Cultural Heritage, Dunhuang, 736200, Gansu, PR China.
⁴ Department of Microbiology, Kohat University of Science and Technology, Kohat, KPK, Pakistan.
⁵ Institutes and Key Laboratories, Chemistry Department, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, PR China.
⁶ School of Life Sciences, Key Laboratory of Aquatic Animal Resources and Utilization of Jiangxi, Nanchang University, Jiangxi, 330031, PR China.
⁷ College of Life Science, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710069, Shaanxi, PR China.

Abstract

As an underdeveloped country, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has posed a major risk to the health and economy of Pakistan. The SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model of epidemiologic analysis predicts that there should have been more cases since late March 2020 in Pakistan. We therefore sought to investigate COVID-19's prevalence and epidemiologic trends in Pakistan. Research for COVID-19 is still in its early stages, so data were collected from official websites and research journals, then analyzed for the disease's prevalence, epidemiology, mortality and recoveries. The results indicated that a rapid increase had indeed occurred in the number of COVID-19 infections in Pakistan, with the first case reported on 25 February, 2020. From 25 February 25 to April, 2020, COVID-19 infected 11,155 people in Pakistan, with 237 deaths (2.12%) and 2527 recoveries (19.96%). We found a statistically significant positive correlation between the prevalence of COVID-19 and the mortality ratio (r = 0.983, r ² = 0.966; p ≤ 0.05). We concluded that proper management must be undertaken to improve the quarantine system, and the World Health Organization guidelines must be closely followed to cope with COVID-19. There is no vaccine for COVID-19, so antiviral drugs (interferon alfa, ribavirin) may be useful to prevent COVID-19; however, severe control measures implemented in China have significantly mitigated the spread of COVID-19. Suspected and confirmed cases must be treated in separate rooms. Staying home and social distancing are the safe way to proceed.

Keywords: COVID-19; Comparison; Current outbreak; Epidemiology; Prevention.