The role of the comprehensive complication index for the prediction of survival after liver transplantation

Updates Surg. 2021 Feb;73(1):209-221. doi: 10.1007/s13304-020-00878-4. Epub 2020 Sep 6.

Abstract

In the last years, several scoring systems based on pre- and post-transplant parameters have been developed to predict early post-LT graft function. However, some of them showed poor diagnostic abilities. This study aims to evaluate the role of the comprehensive complication index (CCI) as a useful scoring system for accurately predicting 90-day and 1-year graft loss after liver transplantation. A training set (n = 1262) and a validation set (n = 520) were obtained. The study was registered at https://www.ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT03723317). CCI exhibited the best diagnostic performance for 90 days in the training (AUC = 0.94; p < 0.001) and Validation Sets (AUC = 0.77; p < 0.001) when compared to the BAR, D-MELD, MELD, and EAD scores. The cut-off value of 47.3 (third quartile) showed a diagnostic odds ratio of 48.3 and 7.0 in the two sets, respectively. As for 1-year graft loss, CCI showed good performances in the training (AUC = 0.88; p < 0.001) and validation sets (AUC = 0.75; p < 0.001). The threshold of 47.3 showed a diagnostic odds ratio of 21.0 and 5.4 in the two sets, respectively. All the other tested scores always showed AUCs < 0.70 in both the sets. CCI showed a good stratification ability in terms of graft loss rates in both the sets (log-rank p < 0.001). In the patients exceeding the CCI ninth decile, 1-year graft survival rates were only 0.7% and 23.1% in training and validation sets, respectively. CCI shows a very good diagnostic power for 90-day and 1-year graft loss in different sets of patients, indicating better accuracy with respect to other pre- and post-LT scores.Clinical Trial Notification: NCT03723317.

Keywords: Allograft dysfunction; Graft survival; MELD; Retransplantation; Survival prediction.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • End Stage Liver Disease / surgery
  • Female
  • Graft Rejection / diagnosis*
  • Graft Survival*
  • Humans
  • Liver Transplantation*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Primary Graft Dysfunction / diagnosis*
  • Research Design*
  • Time Factors

Associated data

  • ClinicalTrials.gov/NCT03723317