Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals

Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2020 Sep 21:53:e20200469. doi: 10.1590/0037-8682-0469-2020. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

Introduction: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists.

Methods: We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities.

Results: All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase.

Conclusions: Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus
  • Brazil
  • COVID-19
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods*
  • Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control*
  • Humans
  • Pandemics / prevention & control*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control*
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Social Isolation*