Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data

Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Apr 8;17(4):3040-3051. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020172.

Abstract

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.

Keywords: corona virus; epidemic mathematical model; isolation; public closings; quarantine; reported and unreported cases.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Asymptomatic Infections / epidemiology
  • Basic Reproduction Number / statistics & numerical data
  • Betacoronavirus*
  • COVID-19
  • China / epidemiology
  • Computer Simulation
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission
  • Epidemics / prevention & control
  • Epidemics / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Mathematical Concepts
  • Models, Biological*
  • Pandemics* / prevention & control
  • Pandemics* / statistics & numerical data
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission
  • Quarantine / statistics & numerical data
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Time Factors