Risk factors for mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19 in Huanggang, China: A single-center multivariate pattern analysis

J Med Virol. 2020 Sep 30;10.1002/jmv.26572. doi: 10.1002/jmv.26572. Online ahead of print.

Abstract

To date, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a worldwide distribution. Risk factors for mortality in critically ill patients, especially detailed self-evaluation indicators and laboratory-examination indicators, have not been well described. In this paper, a total of 192 critically ill patients (142 were discharged and 50 died in the hospital) with COVID-19 were included. Self-evaluation indicators including demographics, baseline characteristics, and symptoms and detailed lab-examination indicators were extracted. Data were first compared between survivors and nonsurvivors. Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) was performed to identify possible risk factors for mortality of COVID-19 patients. MVPA achieved a relatively high classification accuracy of 93% when using both self-evaluation indicators and laboratory-examination indicators. Several self-evaluation factors related to COVID-19 were highly associated with mortality, including age, duration (time from illness onset to admission), and the Barthel index (BI) score. When the duration, age increased by 1 day, 1 year, BI decreased by 1 point, the mortality increased by 3.6%, 2.4%, and 0.9% respectively. Laboratory-examination indicators including C-reactive protein, white blood cell count, platelet count, fibrin degradation products, oxygenation index, lymphocyte count, and d-dimer were also risk factors. Among them, duration was the strongest predictor of all-cause mortality. Several self-evaluation indicators that can simply be obtained by questionnaires and without clinical examination were the risk factors of all-cause mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients. The prediction model can be used by individuals to improve health awareness, and by clinicians to identify high-risk individuals.

Keywords: COVID-19; clinical indicators; machine learning; risk factor; self-evaluation.