Evolution and effects of the social-ecological system over a millennium in China's Loess Plateau

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abc0276

. 2020 Oct 7;6(41):eabc0276.

doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abc0276. Print 2020 Oct.

Evolution and effects of the social-ecological system over a millennium in China's Loess Plateau

Xutong Wu^{1

2}, Yongping Wei³, Bojie Fu^{4

5}, Shuai Wang⁵, Yan Zhao³, Emilio F Moran⁶

Affiliations

¹ Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China.
³ School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4067, Australia.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China. bfu@rcees.ac.cn.
⁵ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
⁶ Department of Geography, Environment and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA.

PMID: 33028526
PMCID: PMC7541069
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abc0276

Evolution and effects of the social-ecological system over a millennium in China's Loess Plateau

Xutong Wu et al. Sci Adv. 2020.

. 2020 Oct 7;6(41):eabc0276.

doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abc0276. Print 2020 Oct.

Authors

Xutong Wu^{1

2}, Yongping Wei³, Bojie Fu^{4

5}, Shuai Wang⁵, Yan Zhao³, Emilio F Moran⁶

Affiliations

¹ Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China.
³ School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4067, Australia.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China. bfu@rcees.ac.cn.
⁵ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
⁶ Department of Geography, Environment and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA.

PMID: 33028526
PMCID: PMC7541069
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abc0276

Abstract

Understanding the regime shifts of social-ecological systems (SES) and their local and spillover effects over a long time frame is important for future sustainability. We provide a perspective of processes unfolding over time to identify the regime shifts of a SES based on changes in the relationships between SES components while also addressing their drivers and local and spillover effects. The applicability of this approach has been demonstrated by analyzing the evolution over the past 1000 years of the SES in China's Loess Plateau (LP). Five evolutionary phases were identified: "fast expansion of cultivation," "slow expansion of cultivation," "landscape engineering for higher production," "transition from cultivation to ecological conservation," and "revegetation for environment." Our study establishes empirical links between the state (phase) of a SES to its drivers and effects. Lessons of single-goal driven and locally focused SES management in the LP, which did not consider these links, have important implications to long-term planning and policy formulation of SES.

Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

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Figures

**Fig. 1. Study area.**
(A) Location of the LP and selected provinces. (B and C) Landscape on the LP before and after the GTGP, respectively. Photo credit: Y. Liang and Z. Wu, Office of the GTGP of Yan’an City.

**Fig. 2. A framework for understanding the evolution of the SES in the LP.**
Double-sided arrows represent the interactions between system components. The transition of any relationship from positive to negative, or vice versa, represents a SES move from one evolutionary phase to another.

**Fig. 3. Changes of interactions between system components and the evolutionary phases of the SES in the LP.**
(A) Relationship between population and cropland area. (B) Relationship between population and forest coverage. (C) Relationship between cropland area and forest coverage. (D) Evolutionary phases of the SES in the LP.

**Fig. 4. Changes of the system component indicators over the past 1000 years.**
(A) Population. (B) Cropland area. (C) Forest coverage.

**Fig. 5. Drivers of changes in social-ecological interactions in the LP.**
(A) Temperature anomaly. (B) Proxy precipitation index and precipitation. (C) Extreme drought or flood years in north China. (D) Grain production per hectare. (E) War frequency in north China.

**Fig. 6. Effects of social-ecological interactions in different evolutionary phases of the SES in the LP.**
(A) Grain production in the LP. (B) Sediment load of the YR. (C) Natural runoff in the YR. (D) Change in area of the YR delta. (E) Number of natural breaches in the lower YR.

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References

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1. Mooney H. A., Duraiappah A., Larigauderie A., Evolution of natural and social science interactions in global change research programs. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 110, 3665–3672 (2013). - PMC - PubMed
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[1] Liu J., Mooney H., Hull V., Davis S. J., Gaskell J., Hertel T., Lubchenco J., Seto K. C., Gleick P., Kremen C., Li S., Systems integration for global sustainability. Science 347, 1258832 (2015). - PubMed

[2] Liu J., Mooney H., Hull V., Davis S. J., Gaskell J., Hertel T., Lubchenco J., Seto K. C., Gleick P., Kremen C., Li S., Systems integration for global sustainability. Science 347, 1258832 (2015). - PubMed

[3] Mooney H. A., Duraiappah A., Larigauderie A., Evolution of natural and social science interactions in global change research programs. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 110, 3665–3672 (2013). - PMC - PubMed

[4] Mooney H. A., Duraiappah A., Larigauderie A., Evolution of natural and social science interactions in global change research programs. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 110, 3665–3672 (2013). - PMC - PubMed

[5] Shindell D., Kuylenstierna J. C. I., Vignati E., van Dingenen R., Amann M., Klimont Z., Anenberg S. C., Muller N., Janssens-Maenhout G., Raes F., Schwartz J., Faluvegi G., Pozzoli L., Kupiainen K., Hoglund-Isaksson L., Emberson L., Streets D., Ramanathan V., Hicks K., Oanh N. T. K., Milly G., Williams M., Demkine V., Fowler D., Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security. Science 335, 183–189 (2012). - PubMed

[6] Shindell D., Kuylenstierna J. C. I., Vignati E., van Dingenen R., Amann M., Klimont Z., Anenberg S. C., Muller N., Janssens-Maenhout G., Raes F., Schwartz J., Faluvegi G., Pozzoli L., Kupiainen K., Hoglund-Isaksson L., Emberson L., Streets D., Ramanathan V., Hicks K., Oanh N. T. K., Milly G., Williams M., Demkine V., Fowler D., Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security. Science 335, 183–189 (2012). - PubMed

[7] Reis S., Grennfelt P., Klimont Z., Amann M., ApSimon H., Hettelingh J. P., Holland M., LeGall A. C., Maas R., Posch M., Spranger T., Sutton M. A., Williams M., From acid rain to climate change. Science 338, 1153–1154 (2012). - PubMed

[8] Reis S., Grennfelt P., Klimont Z., Amann M., ApSimon H., Hettelingh J. P., Holland M., LeGall A. C., Maas R., Posch M., Spranger T., Sutton M. A., Williams M., From acid rain to climate change. Science 338, 1153–1154 (2012). - PubMed

[9] Hejazi M., Edmonds J., Clarke L., Kyle P., Davies E., Chaturvedi V., Wise M., Patel P., Eom J., Calvin K., Moss R., Kim S., Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 81, 205–226 (2014).

[10] Hejazi M., Edmonds J., Clarke L., Kyle P., Davies E., Chaturvedi V., Wise M., Patel P., Eom J., Calvin K., Moss R., Kim S., Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 81, 205–226 (2014).

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Evolution and effects of the social-ecological system over a millennium in China's Loess Plateau

Affiliations

Evolution and effects of the social-ecological system over a millennium in China's Loess Plateau

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

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