COVID-19 pandemic and chaos theory

O Postavaru; S R Anton; A Toma

doi:10.1016/j.matcom.2020.09.029

COVID-19 pandemic and chaos theory

Math Comput Simul. 2021 Mar:181:138-149. doi: 10.1016/j.matcom.2020.09.029. Epub 2020 Oct 3.

Authors

O Postavaru¹, S R Anton¹, A Toma¹

Affiliation

¹ Center for Research and Training in Innovative Techniques of Applied Mathematics in Engineering, Faculty of Applied Sciences, University Politehnica of Bucharest, Bucharest, 060042, Romania.

Abstract

The dynamics of COVID-19 is investigated with regard to complex contributions of the omitted factors. For this purpose, we use a fractional order SEIR model which allows us to calculate the number of infections considering the chaotic contributions into susceptible, exposed, infectious and removed number of individuals. We check our model on Wuhan, China-2019 and South Korea underlying the importance of the chaotic contribution, and then we extend it to Italy and the USA. Results are of great guiding significance to promote evidence-based decisions and policy.

Keywords: Bernoulli polynomials; Block-pulse; Caputo derivative; Epidemic models.