Background: Even though both interferon (IFN)-based and direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies against hepatitis C virus (HCV) reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), post-sustained virological response (SVR) patients remain at elevated risk of HCC.
Methods: A total of 4620 patients who achieved SVR were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. After excluding patients who had a history of HCC or developed HCC within 1 year and whose follow-up period was less than 1 year and who were positive for HBsAg, we investigated the association between clinical characteristics and HCC development after SVR in the remaining 3771 patients.
Results: Median observation period was 41 months. We confirmed known risk factors. In addition, we found that PNPLA3 and HLA-DQB1 polymorphisms were associated with HCC after SVR. Finally, we propose an estimation model for the incidence of HCC after SVR. Based on gender, FIB-4 index, AFP, and PNPLA3 polymorphism, about 18% of all patients were classified as having high risk, with a cumulative incidence rate (CIR) at 5 years of 16.5%. Another 17% were classified as having moderate risk with a CIR of 7.6%. The remaining 65% showed a CIR of 0.5%. The effect of PNPLA3 polymorphism might be more pronounced in patients with lower body mass index (BMI) and without diabetes mellitus compared to those with higher BMI and diabetes mellitus.
Conclusions: We demonstrated that PNPLA3 and HLA-DQB1 polymorphisms were associated with HCC after SVR. These findings might be useful to inform risk stratification for HCC surveillance after SVR.
Keywords: Epidemiology; Genomics; Hepatitis C; Hepatocellular carcinoma.