Worldwide Burden of, Risk Factors for, and Trends in Pancreatic Cancer

Abstract

Background & aims: We evaluated global and regional burdens of, risk factors for, and epidemiologic trends in pancreatic cancer among groups of different sexes and ages.

Methods: We used data from the GLOBOCAN database to estimate pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in 184 countries. We examined the association between lifestyle and metabolic risk factors, extracted from the World Health Organization Global Health Observatory database, and pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality by univariable and multivariable linear regression. We retrieved country-specific age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence and mortalities from cancer registries from 48 countries through 2017 for trend analysis by joinpoint regression analysis.

Results: The highest incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer were in regions with very high (ASRs, 7.7 and 4.9) and high human development indexes (ASRs, 6.9 and 4.6) in 2018. Countries with higher incidence and mortality were more likely to have higher prevalence of smoking, alcohol drinking, physical inactivity, obesity, hypertension, and high cholesterol. From 2008 to 2017, 2007 to 2016, or 2003 to 2012, depending on the availability of the data, there were increases in incidence among men and women in 14 (average annual percent changes [AAPCs], 8.85 to 0.41) and 17 (AAPCs, 6.04 to 0.87) countries, respectively. For mortality, the increase was observed in 8 (AAPCs, 4.20 to 0.55) countries among men and 14 (AAPCs, 5.83 to 0.78) countries among women. Although the incidence increased in 18 countries (AAPCs, 7.83 to 0.91) among individuals 50 years or older, an increasing trend in pancreatic cancer was also identified among individuals younger than 50 years and 40 years in 8 (AAPCs, 8.75 to 2.82) and 4 (AAPCs, 11.07 to 8.31) countries, respectively.

Conclusions: In an analysis of data from 48 countries, we found increasing incidence and mortality trends in pancreatic cancer, especially among women and populations 50 years or older, but also among younger individuals. More preventive efforts are recommended for these populations.

Keywords: ASR; Epidemiology; Pancreas; Trend Analysis.