A prognostic model predicted deterioration in health-related quality of life in older patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy

J Clin Epidemiol. 2021 Feb:130:1-12. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.10.006. Epub 2020 Oct 13.

Abstract

Objectives: To develop and validate a prognostic model to predict deterioration in health-related quality of life (dHRQoL) in older general practice patients with at least one chronic condition and one chronic prescription.

Study design and setting: We used individual participant data from five cluster-randomized trials conducted in the Netherlands and Germany to predict dHRQoL, defined as a decrease in EQ-5D-3 L index score of ≥5% after 6-month follow-up in logistic regression models with stratified intercepts to account for between-study heterogeneity. The model was validated internally and by using internal-external cross-validation (IECV).

Results: In 3,582 patients with complete data, of whom 1,046 (29.2%) showed deterioration in HRQoL, and 12/87 variables were selected that were related to single (chronic) conditions, inappropriate medication, medication underuse, functional status, well-being, and HRQoL. Bootstrap internal validation showed a C-statistic of 0.71 (0.69 to 0.72) and a calibration slope of 0.88 (0.78 to 0.98). In the IECV loop, the model provided a pooled C-statistic of 0.68 (0.65 to 0.70) and calibration-in-the-large of 0 (-0.13 to 0.13). HRQoL/functionality had the strongest prognostic value.

Conclusion: The model performed well in terms of discrimination, calibration, and generalizability and might help clinicians identify older patients at high risk of dHRQoL.

Registration: PROSPERO ID: CRD42018088129.

Keywords: Elderly; Functional status; Multimorbidity; Patient-centered care; Polypharmacy; Prognostic model; Quality of life.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Aging / pathology*
  • Clinical Deterioration*
  • Female
  • Germany
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Multimorbidity*
  • Netherlands
  • Polypharmacy*
  • Prognosis*
  • Quality of Life*