Melatonin is significantly associated with survival of intubated COVID-19 patients

medRxiv. 2020 Oct 18;2020.10.15.20213546. doi: 10.1101/2020.10.15.20213546. Preprint

Abstract

Background <br> Respiratory distress requiring intubation is the most serious complication associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). <br> Methods In this retrospective study, we used survival analysis to determine whether or not mortality following intubation was associated with hormone exposure in patients treated at New York Presbyterian/ Columbia University Irving Medical Center. Here, we report the overall hazards ratio for each hormone for exposure before and after intubation for intubated and mechanically ventilated patients. <br> Results Among the 189,987 patients, we identified 948 intubation periods across 791 patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19 or infected with SARS-CoV2 and 3,497 intubation periods across 2,981 patients who were not. Melatonin exposure after intubation was statistically associated with a positive outcome in COVID-19 (demographics and comorbidities adjusted HR: 0.131, 95% CI: 7.76E-02 - 0.223, p -value = 8.19E-14) and non-COVID-19 (demographics and comorbidities adjusted HR: 0.278, 95% CI: 0.142 - 0.542, p -value = 1.72E-04) intubated patients. Additionally, melatonin exposure after intubation was statically associated with a positive outcome in COVID-19 patients (demographics and comorbidities adjusted HR: 0.127, 95% CI: 6.01E-02 - 0.269, p -value = 7.15E-08). <br> Conclusions Melatonin exposure after intubation is significantly associated with a positive outcome in COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients. Additionally, melatonin exposure after intubation is significantly associated with a positive outcome in COVID-19 patients requiring mechanical ventilation. While our models account for many covariates, including clinical history and demographics, it is impossible to rule out confounding or collider biases within our population. Further study into the possible mechanism of this observation is warranted.

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