Background: Accurate estimation of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) from continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) remains challenging in clinic. We propose two statistical models and validate them in real-life conditions against the current standard, glucose management indicator (GMI). Materials and Methods: Modeling utilized routinely collected data from patients with type 1 diabetes from central Poland (eligibility criteria: age >1 year, diabetes duration >3 months, and CGM use between 01/01/2015 and 12/31/2019). CGM records were extracted from dedicated Medtronic/Abbott databases and cross-referenced with HbA1c values; 28-day periods preceding HbA1c measurement with >75% of the sensor-active time were analyzed. We developed a mixed linear regression, including glycemic variability indices and patient's ID (glucose variability-based patient specific model, GV-PS) intended for closed-group use and linear regression using patient-specific error of GMI (proportional error-based patient agnostic model, PE-PA) for general use. Models were validated with either new HbA1cs from closed-group patients or separate patient-HbA1c pool. External validation was performed with data from clinical trials. Performance metrics included bias, its 95% confidence interval (95% CI), coefficient of determination (R2), and root mean square error (RMSE). Results: We included 723 HbA1c-CGM pairs from 174 patients (mean age 9.9 ± 4.4 years and diabetes duration 3.7 ± 3.6 years). GMI yielded R2 = 0.58, with different bias between Medtronic and Abbott devices [0.120% vs. -0.152%, P < 0.0001], and overall 95% CI = -0.9% to +1%, RMSE = 0.47%. GV-PS successfully captured patient-specific variance (closed-group validation: R2 = 0.83, bias = 0.026%, 95% CI = -0.562% to 0.591%, RMSE = 0.31%). PE-PA performed similarly on new patients (R2 = 0.76, bias = -0.069%, 95% CI = -0.790% to 0.653%, RMSE = 0.37%). In external validation GMI, GV-PS, and PE-PA produced 73.8%, 87.5%, and 91.0% predictions within 0.5% (5.5 mmol/mol) from the true value. Conclusion: Constructed models performed better than GMI. PE-PA provided an accurate estimate of HbA1c with fast and straightforward implementation.
Keywords: Continuous glucose monitoring; Glucose variability; HbA1c; Telemedicine; Type 1 diabetes.