Global Forecasting Confirmed and Fatal Cases of COVID-19 Outbreak Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Abstract

The world health organization (WHO) formally proclaimed the novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, a worldwide pandemic on March 11 2020. In December 2019, COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan city, China, and now coronavirus has spread across various nations infecting more than 198 countries. As the cities around China started getting contaminated, the number of cases increased exponentially. As of March 18 2020, the number of confirmed cases worldwide was more than 250,000, and Asia alone had more than 81,000 cases. The proposed model uses time series analysis to forecast the outbreak of COVID-19 around the world in the upcoming days by using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). We analyze data from February 1 2020 to April 1 2020. The result shows that 120,000 confirmed fatal cases are forecasted using ARIMA by April 1 2020. Moreover, we have also evaluated the total confirmed cases, the total fatal cases, autocorrelation function, and white noise time-series for both confirmed cases and fatalities in the COVID-19 outbreak.

Keywords: ARIMA; COVID-19; forecasting; global pandemic; time series analysis.