The use of immune checkpoint inhibitors to treat urothelial carcinoma (UC) is increasing rapidly without clear guidance for validated risk stratification. This multicenter retrospective study collected clinicopathological information on 463 patients, and 11 predefined variables were analyzed to develop a multivariate model predicting overall survival (OS). The model was validated using an independent dataset of 292 patients. Patient characteristics and outcomes were well balanced between the discovery and validation cohorts, which had median OS times of 10.2 and 12.5 mo, respectively. The final validated multivariate model was defined by risk scores based on the hazard ratios (HRs) of independent prognostic factors including performance status, site of metastasis, hemoglobin levels, and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. The median OS times (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (discovery cohort) were not yet reached (NYR) (NYR-19.1), 6.8 mo (5.8-8.9), and 2.3 mo (1.2-2.6), respectively. The HRs (95% CI) for OS in the low- and intermediate-risk groups vs the high-risk group were 0.07 (0.04-0.11) and 0.23 (0.15-0.37), respectively. The objective response rates for in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 48.3%, 28.8%, and 10.5%, respectively. These differential outcomes were well reproduced in the validation cohort and in patients who received pembrolizumab after perioperative or first-line chemotherapy (N = 584). In conclusion, the present study developed and validated a simple prognostic model predicting the oncological outcomes of pembrolizumab-treated patients with chemoresistant UC. The model provides useful information for external validation, patient counseling, and clinical trial design.
Keywords: metastatic urothelial cancer; multivariate risk stratification model; overall survival; pembrolizumab; prognostic variables.
© 2020 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.