Modeled Reductions in Late-stage Cancer with a Multi-Cancer Early Detection Test

Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2021 Mar;30(3):460-468. doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-20-1134. Epub 2020 Dec 16.


Background: Cancer is the second leading cause of death globally, with many cases detected at a late stage when prognosis is poor. New technologies enabling multi-cancer early detection (MCED) may make "universal cancer screening" possible. We extend single-cancer models to understand the potential public health effects of adding a MCED test to usual care.

Methods: We obtained data on stage-specific incidence and survival of all invasive cancers diagnosed in persons aged 50-79 between 2006 and 2015 from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, and combined this with published performance of a MCED test in a state transition model (interception model) to predict diagnostic yield, stage shift, and potential mortality reductions. We model long-term (incident) performance, accou.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Early Detection of Cancer
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasm Staging
  • Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Prognosis