Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria

Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Oct 22;17(6):7192-7220. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020369.

Abstract

A mathematical model is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model, which was rigorously analysed and parametrized using COVID-19 data published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of various control and mitigation strategies in some jurisdictions within Nigeria (notably the states of Kano and Lagos, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja). Numerical simulations of the model showed that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled in Nigeria using moderate levels of social-distancing strategy in the jurisdictions and in the entire nation. Although the use of face masks in public can significantly reduce COVID-19 in Nigeria, its use, as a sole intervention strategy, may fail to lead to a substantial reduction in disease burden. Such substantial reduction is feasible in the jurisdictions (and the entire Nigerian nation) if the public face mask use strategy is complemented with a social-distancing strategy. The community lockdown measures implemented in Nigeria on March 30, 2020 need to be maintained for at least three to four months to lead to the effective containment of COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. Relaxing, or fully lifting, the lockdown measures sooner, in an effort to re-open the economy or the country, may trigger a deadly second wave of the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; lockdown; non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs); social-distancing.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / transmission*
  • Communicable Disease Control
  • Epidemiological Monitoring
  • Humans
  • Masks
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Nigeria / epidemiology
  • Pandemics
  • Physical Distancing
  • Quarantine
  • Treatment Outcome