The predictive value of resting electrocardiograms for 12-year incidence of coronary heart disease in the Honolulu Heart Program

J Clin Epidemiol. 1988;41(3):293-302. doi: 10.1016/0895-4356(88)90134-5.


The predictive value of electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities at baseline for subsequent risk of fatal and total coronary heart disease (CHD) was analyzed in a 12-year follow-up of 7682 men in the Honolulu Heart Program aged 45-68 who were free of CHD at baseline. Univariate analysis showed that men with major or minor ECG abnormalities, ST depression, high R wave, T-wave inversion, left ventricular hypertrophy or strain and premature ventricular contractions had considerably higher (2-10 fold) CHD incidence rates than those with normal ECG. When blood pressure, cigarette smoking, body mass index, alcohol use, physical activity, serum glucose, serum cholesterol, serum uric acid, age and years lived in Japan were taken into consideration through multivariate analysis, the ECG abnormalities retained significant associations with fatal and total CHD. This study demonstrated that resting ECG abnormalities were independent predictors of both total and fatal CHD.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Coronary Disease / epidemiology*
  • Coronary Disease / ethnology
  • Coronary Disease / physiopathology
  • Electrocardiography*
  • Hawaii
  • Humans
  • Japan / ethnology
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Myocardial Infarction / epidemiology
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Factors