A simple but complex enough [Formula: see text] -SIR type model to be used with COVID-19 real data. Application to the case of Italy

A M Ramos; M R Ferrández; M Vela-Pérez; A B Kubik; B Ivorra

doi:10.1016/j.physd.2020.132839

A simple but complex enough $θ$ -SIR type model to be used with COVID-19 real data. Application to the case of Italy

Physica D. 2021 Jul:421:132839. doi: 10.1016/j.physd.2020.132839. Epub 2021 Jan 1.

Authors

A M Ramos¹, M R Ferrández², M Vela-Pérez¹, A B Kubik¹, B Ivorra¹

Affiliations

¹ MOMAT Research Group, Interdisciplinary Mathematics Institute, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain.
² Department of Computer Science, University of Almería, Spain.

Abstract

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in China many models have appeared in the literature, trying to simulate its dynamics. Focusing on modeling the biological and sociological mechanisms which influence the disease spread, the basic reference example is the SIR model. However, it is too simple to be able to model those mechanisms (including the three main types of control measures: social distancing, contact tracing and health system measures) to fit real data and to simulate possible future scenarios. A question, then, arises: how much and how do we need to complexify a SIR model? We develop a $θ$ -SEIHQRD model, which may be the simplest one satisfying the mentioned requirements for arbitrary territories and can be simplified in particular cases. We show its very good performance in the Italian case and study different future scenarios.

Keywords: θ -SEIQHRD model; COVID-19; Effective reproduction number; Numerical simulation; Parameter estimation; SARS-CoV-2.