Background: To quantify the impact of the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) on the risk of HIV transmission through infected blood donations in countries supported by PEPFAR blood safety programs.
Methods: Data reported to the World Health Organization Global Database on Blood Safety were analyzed from 28 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Asia, and the Caribbean during 2004-2015. We used the Goals model of Spectrum Spectrum System Software, version 5.53, to perform the modeling, assuming laboratory quality for HIV testing had 91.9% sensitivity and 97.7% specificity irrespective of testing method based on results of two external quality assurance and proficiency testing studies of transfusion screening for HIV in SSA blood centers. We calculated the number of new HIV infections from the number of transfusions and the prevalence of HIV infection acquired from blood transfusions with infected blood donations. We determined the impact of laboratory testing programs by estimating the number of new HIV infections averted since PEPFAR implementation.
Results: Assuming that HIV testing would not be performed in any of these countries without PEPFAR funding, the number of new HIV infections acquired from blood transfusions averted by laboratory testing increased over time in all 28 countries. The total number of HIV infections averted was estimated at 229 278 out of 20 428 373 blood transfusions during 2004-2015.
Conclusion: Our mathematical modeling suggests a positive impact achieved over 12 years of PEPFAR support for blood safety. Standardized HIV testing of donated blood has reduced the risk of HIV transmission through blood transfusions in SSA, Asia, and the Caribbean.
Keywords: HIV seropositivity; PEPFAR; blood safety; clinical laboratory screening; developing countries; mathematical modeling.
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