Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00183-5

. 2021 Feb 6;397(10273):452-455.

doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00183-5. Epub 2021 Jan 27.

Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

Ester C Sabino¹, Lewis F Buss², Maria P S Carvalho³, Carlos A Prete Jr⁴, Myuki A E Crispim³, Nelson A Fraiji³, Rafael H M Pereira⁵, Kris V Parag⁶, Pedro da Silva Peixoto⁷, Moritz U G Kraemer⁸, Marcio K Oikawa⁹, Tassila Salomon¹⁰, Zulma M Cucunuba⁶, Márcia C Castro¹¹, Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos¹², Vítor H Nascimento⁴, Henrique S Pereira¹³, Neil M Ferguson⁶, Oliver G Pybus⁸, Adam Kucharski¹⁴, Michael P Busch¹⁵, Christopher Dye⁸, Nuno R Faria¹⁶

Affiliations

¹ Departamento de Molestias Infecciosas e Parasitarias and Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP 05403-000, Brazil. Electronic address: sabinoec@usp.br.
² Departamento de Molestias Infecciosas e Parasitarias and Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP 05403-000, Brazil.
³ Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil.
⁴ Departamento de Engenharia de Sistemas Eletrônicos, Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
⁵ Institute for Applied Economic Research-Ipea, Brasília, Brazil.
⁶ MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, London, UK.
⁷ Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
⁸ Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
⁹ Center of Mathematics, Computing and Cognition-Universidade Federal do ABC, São Paulo, Brazil.
¹⁰ Fundação Hemominas-Fundação Centro de Hematologia e Hemoterapia de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Faculdade Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
¹¹ Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
¹² Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, Latin American Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
¹³ Centro de Ciências Ambientais, Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil.
¹⁴ Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
¹⁵ Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, USA; University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.
¹⁶ Departamento de Molestias Infecciosas e Parasitarias and Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP 05403-000, Brazil; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, London, UK; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

PMID: 33515491
PMCID: PMC7906746
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00183-5

Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

Ester C Sabino et al. Lancet. 2021.

. 2021 Feb 6;397(10273):452-455.

doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00183-5. Epub 2021 Jan 27.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Departamento de Molestias Infecciosas e Parasitarias and Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP 05403-000, Brazil. Electronic address: sabinoec@usp.br.
² Departamento de Molestias Infecciosas e Parasitarias and Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP 05403-000, Brazil.
³ Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil.
⁴ Departamento de Engenharia de Sistemas Eletrônicos, Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
⁵ Institute for Applied Economic Research-Ipea, Brasília, Brazil.
⁶ MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, London, UK.
⁷ Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
⁸ Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
⁹ Center of Mathematics, Computing and Cognition-Universidade Federal do ABC, São Paulo, Brazil.
¹⁰ Fundação Hemominas-Fundação Centro de Hematologia e Hemoterapia de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Faculdade Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
¹¹ Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
¹² Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, Latin American Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
¹³ Centro de Ciências Ambientais, Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil.
¹⁴ Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
¹⁵ Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, USA; University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.
¹⁶ Departamento de Molestias Infecciosas e Parasitarias and Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP 05403-000, Brazil; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, London, UK; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

PMID: 33515491
PMCID: PMC7906746
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00183-5

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Figures

**Figure**
COVID-19 hospitalisations, excess deaths, and R_t in Manaus, Brazil, 2020–21 (A) Dark lines are the 7-day rolling averages and lighter lines are the daily time series of COVID-19 hospitalisations and excess deaths. Hospitalisation data are from the Fundação de Vigilância em Saúde do Amazonas. Total all-cause deaths for 2020–21 were reported initially by the Prefeitura de Manaus and subsequently in the daily COVID-19 bulletin of the Fundação de Vigilância em Saúde do Amazonas. All-cause deaths from 2019 were from Arpen/AM (Associação dos Registradores Civis das Pessoas Naturais do Amazonas). The compiled excess death data are from Bruce Nelson from the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia. (B) R_t was calculated using the time series of COVID-19 hospitalisations after removal of the past 14 days to account for delays in notification. R_t was calculated using the EpiFilter method. Lines are median R_t estimates; shaded areas are the 95% CIs. R_t=Effective reproduction number. SARS-CoV-2=severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

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References

1. Lucy CO, Verity R, Watson OJ, et al. Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity? Lancet. 2020;395:e110–e111. - PMC - PubMed
1. Buss LF, Prete CA, Abrahim CMM, et al. Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic. Science. 2020;371:288–292. - PMC - PubMed
1. Álvarez-Antonio C, Meza-Sánchez G, Calampa C, et al. Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Iquitos, Loreto, Peru. MedRxiv. 2021 doi: 10.1101/2021.01.17.21249913. published online 20. (preprint) - DOI - PMC - PubMed
1. Fontanet A, Cauchemez S. COVID-19 herd immunity: where are we? Nat Rev Immunol. 2020;20:583–584. - PMC - PubMed
1. Fundação de Vigilância em Saúde do Amazonas COVID-19 no Amazonas. Dados epidemiológicos e financeiros das ações de combate à COVID-19. Publicações. http://www.fvs.am.gov.br/publicacoes

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[1] Lucy CO, Verity R, Watson OJ, et al. Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity? Lancet. 2020;395:e110–e111. - PMC - PubMed

[2] Lucy CO, Verity R, Watson OJ, et al. Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity? Lancet. 2020;395:e110–e111. - PMC - PubMed

[3] Buss LF, Prete CA, Abrahim CMM, et al. Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic. Science. 2020;371:288–292. - PMC - PubMed

[4] Buss LF, Prete CA, Abrahim CMM, et al. Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic. Science. 2020;371:288–292. - PMC - PubMed

[5] Álvarez-Antonio C, Meza-Sánchez G, Calampa C, et al. Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Iquitos, Loreto, Peru. MedRxiv. 2021 doi: 10.1101/2021.01.17.21249913. published online 20. (preprint) - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[6] Álvarez-Antonio C, Meza-Sánchez G, Calampa C, et al. Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Iquitos, Loreto, Peru. MedRxiv. 2021 doi: 10.1101/2021.01.17.21249913. published online 20. (preprint) - DOI - PMC - PubMed

[7] Fontanet A, Cauchemez S. COVID-19 herd immunity: where are we? Nat Rev Immunol. 2020;20:583–584. - PMC - PubMed

[8] Fontanet A, Cauchemez S. COVID-19 herd immunity: where are we? Nat Rev Immunol. 2020;20:583–584. - PMC - PubMed

[9] Fundação de Vigilância em Saúde do Amazonas COVID-19 no Amazonas. Dados epidemiológicos e financeiros das ações de combate à COVID-19. Publicações. http://www.fvs.am.gov.br/publicacoes

[10] Fundação de Vigilância em Saúde do Amazonas COVID-19 no Amazonas. Dados epidemiológicos e financeiros das ações de combate à COVID-19. Publicações. http://www.fvs.am.gov.br/publicacoes

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Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

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Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

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