COVID-19 intervention models: An initial aggressive treatment strategy for controlling the infection

Infect Dis Model. 2021;6:351-361. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.01.007. Epub 2021 Jan 23.

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak emerged in December 2019. The disease has caused loss of many lives and has become an unprecedented threat to public health worldwide. We develop simple COVID-19 epidemic models to study treatment strategies to control the pandemic. The results show that eradication of the disease is possible if the efficacy of treatment is perfect. We also investigate the existence of a dual-rate effect. Conditions under which the effect occurs are derived. When the effect is present, a tactic to control the infection might be to initially treat infected individuals aggressively at a relatively high rate to drive the prevalence to a lower region that can be maintained in the long run at relatively moderate rate and cost.

Keywords: COVID-19 disease; Dual-rate effect; Treatment rate.