A reservoir computing approach for forecasting and regenerating both dynamical and time-delay controlled financial system behavior

PLoS One. 2021 Feb 12;16(2):e0246737. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246737. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Significant research in reservoir computing over the past two decades has revived interest in recurrent neural networks. Owing to its ingrained capability of performing high-speed and low-cost computations this has become a panacea for multi-variate complex systems having non-linearity within their relationships. Modelling economic and financial trends has always been a challenging task owing to their volatile nature and no linear dependence on associated influencers. Prior studies aimed at effectively forecasting such financial systems, but, always left a visible room for optimization in terms of cost, speed and modelling complexities. Our work employs a reservoir computing approach complying to echo-state network principles, along with varying strengths of time-delayed feedback to model a complex financial system. The derived model is demonstrated to act robustly towards influence of trends and other fluctuating parameters by effectively forecasting long-term system behavior. Moreover, it also re-generates the financial system unknowns with a high degree of accuracy when only limited future data is available, thereby, becoming a reliable feeder for any long-term decision making or policy formulations.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Computer Simulation
  • Financial Management / methods*
  • Financial Management / trends
  • Forecasting / methods*
  • Neural Networks, Computer*
  • Nonlinear Dynamics

Grants and funding

This research was funded by the Department of Science and Technology, India under DU-DST Purse Phase-II (Grant#381/382/22-09-2015; https://dst.gov.in/). This grant was received by SS. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.