Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are…

Risk Anal. 2021 Feb;41(2):223-228. doi: 10.1111/risa.13668.


This introduction for the third special issue on modeling poliovirus risks provides context for the current status of global polio eradication efforts and gives an overview of the individual papers included in the issue. Although risk analysis continues to support the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), efforts to finish the job remained off track at the beginning of 2020 and prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, as discussed in the special issue. The disruptions associated with COVID-19 occurring now will inevitably change the polio eradication trajectory, and future studies will need to characterize the impacts of these disruptions on the polio endgame.

Keywords: eradication; modeling; polio.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19
  • Disease Eradication
  • Global Health
  • Humans
  • Immunization Programs
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pandemics
  • Poliomyelitis / epidemiology*
  • Poliomyelitis / prevention & control*
  • Poliomyelitis / transmission*
  • Poliovirus
  • Poliovirus Vaccines
  • Risk Assessment / methods*


  • Poliovirus Vaccines