Pumping-induced leakage across aquitards may induce a deterioration of water quality in multi-layer aquifer systems. It is critical to understand long-term trends of water quality parameters when assessing the sustainability of groundwater abstraction. Daily drinking water needs of 2.2 million people in Yinchuan region of northwest China are solely met by groundwater resources, but long-term groundwater withdrawal has created an extensive cone of depression (294 km2 in area) in confined aquifer causing increased vertical recharge. In this study, a model was established and calibrated with head data, then was incorporated with field tracer tests to provide key information on the hydro-dispersive characteristics of the contaminant for assessing both the current and future state of the aquifer system. The results confirmed a close association between water quality deterioration and high downward fluxes of high chloride groundwater, most notably near the center of the cone of depression. On a temporal scale, water quality degradation remains slow, largely due to the high, pre-existing storage of good quality water. Modeling suggests that the water quality in the upper confined aquifer will lose its potability over a 25 km2 and 50 km2 area within 200 years under the current and intensified pumping conditions, respectively. Elevated chloride values were also detected toward the east of the cone, highlighting the impact of hydrological settings on the vertical groundwater flow. Modeling of potential aquifer remediation shows an even slower response with a further 250 years or more required for potability to be restored in affected areas. The findings can provide valuable guidance to for decision makers and support the sustainable management of aquifer exploitation.
Keywords: Chloride; Confined aquifer; Groundwater deterioration; MODFLOW; Northwest China; Remediation.
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