Predictors of gastrointestinal bleeding in adult ICU patients in the SUP-ICU trial

Abstract

Background: In previous studies of predictors of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding in the intensive care unit (ICU), most patients received pharmacological stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP). We aimed to assess associations between potential predictors of clinically important GI bleeding (CIB) and overt GI bleeding in adult ICU patients, while considering the effect and potential interaction with use of SUP.

Methods: We included 3291 acutely admitted adult ICU patients with risk factors for GI bleeding randomized to SUP (pantoprazole) or placebo in the SUP-ICU trial. We used logistic regression models adjusted for allocation to SUP to estimate associations between 23 potential predictors and CIB (primary outcome) and overt GI bleeding (secondary outcome). Furthermore, we assessed associations between potential predictors and both outcomes in each allocation group and assessed potential interaction with allocation to SUP.

Results: Increasing SAPS II and SOFA scores, use of circulatory support and renal replacement therapy were associated with increased risk of CIB and overt GI bleeding; chronic lung disease was associated with increased risk of overt GI bleeding. Results for the remaining potential predictors were compatible with both no difference or increased and decreased risks. We found no strong evidence for any interaction between treatment allocation and any potential predictors.

Conclusion: In adult ICU patients at risk of GI bleeding, severity of illness, use of circulatory support and renal replacement therapy were associated with higher odds of CIB, with no strong evidence of interaction with SUP.

Keywords: gastrointestinal bleeding; intensive care; predictors; stress ulcer prophylaxis.