Survival of patients with asbestosis can be assessed by risk-predicting models

Occup Environ Med. 2021 Jul;78(7):516-521. doi: 10.1136/oemed-2020-106819. Epub 2021 Feb 26.


Objectives: Our aim was to investigate the pulmonary function test (PFT) results of patients with asbestosis and determine whether baseline PFTs and the risk-predicting models such as gender, age and physiologic (GAP) variables model and composite physiologic index (CPI) would be useful in predicting survival in these patients.

Methods: Demographics and PFTs of 100 patients with asbestosis were evaluated. The survival difference between the GAP stages was determined with Kaplan-Meier survival curves with statistical significance analysed with log-rank test. The suitability of the risk-predicting models and baseline PFTs to predict the survival of patients was analysed with Cox regression.

Results: At baseline, the mean value of diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) was 65%; for forced vital capacity it was 81%, with restrictive lung function being the most common impairment. The median estimated survival of the patients was 124 months, that is, 171 months in GAP stage I, 50 months in stage II and 21 months in stage III (p<0.001). CPI, DLCO% predicted, age at baseline and GAP stage were significant predictors of mortality (all p values under 0.001).

Conclusions: GAP and CPI as well as baseline DLCO% predicted were significant parameters in the evaluation of the prognosis of the patients with asbestosis; they may be useful in clinical practice when considering treatment strategies of individual patients.

Keywords: asbestos; lung function; pneumoconioses; respiratory.