Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Science. 2021 Apr 9;372(6538):eabg3055. doi: 10.1126/science.abg3055. Epub 2021 Mar 3.

Abstract

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Basic Reproduction Number
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / mortality
  • COVID-19 / transmission*
  • COVID-19 / virology*
  • COVID-19 Vaccines
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Communicable Disease Control
  • England / epidemiology
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Mutation
  • SARS-CoV-2* / genetics
  • SARS-CoV-2* / growth & development
  • SARS-CoV-2* / pathogenicity
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Socioeconomic Factors
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Viral Load
  • Young Adult

Substances

  • COVID-19 Vaccines

Supplementary concepts

  • SARS-CoV-2 variants