Blood lead levels of Chinese children from 1991 to 2020: Based on Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Chinese children have been exposed to high level of lead due to polluted air, dust, contaminated foods and water, etc. In this research, we investigated published blood lead levels (BLLs) reflecting 1,057,832 Chinese children aged at 0-12 and teenagers aged at 13-18 in the past 30 years (1991-2020). The data mining and estimation were performed innovatively by Monte Carlo simulation to remedy the skewed distribution-induced bias. The temporal trend of Chinese children's BLLs showed an obvious decrease in the past decades from 88.74 μg/L (Geometric SD = 4.09) during 1991-1995 to 27.32 μg/L (Geometric SD = 4.18) during 2016-2020. This study also indicated that children's BLLs of Yunnan, Guizhou, Shanxi were at relatively high levels and most provinces showed a downward trend. Chinese boys aged at 1-18 years old had higher BLLs (GM: 44.03 μg/L) compared to girls (GM: 41.32 μg/L) (p < 0.001). At different age groups, Chinese children's BLLs were 42.04 μg/L (1-3 years old), 52.88 μg/L (4-6 years old), 50.49 μg/L (7 and above years old), respectively. Although the BLLs of Chinese children exhibited a continuous declined trend in the past 30 years, it was still higher than that in developed countries, which indicated that more efforts are needed in children's BLLs control.

Keywords: Blood lead levels; Chinese children; Lead pollution; Monte Carlo simulation.