The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19

Nat Commun. 2021 Mar 9;12(1):1524. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21747-7.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., "household bubbles". The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Belgium / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / transmission*
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods
  • Contact Tracing*
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious / prevention & control*
  • Family Characteristics*
  • Health Policy
  • Hospitalization
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pandemics
  • Quarantine*
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification
  • Schools
  • Young Adult