A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand

Comput Math Methods Med. 2021 Mar 30:2021:6664483. doi: 10.1155/2021/6664483. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

In this study, we propose a new mathematical model and analyze it to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangkok, Thailand. It is divided into seven compartmental classes, namely, susceptible (S), exposed (E), symptomatically infected (I s ), asymptomatically infected (I a ), quarantined (Q), recovered (R), and death (D), respectively. The next-generation matrix approach was used to compute the basic reproduction number denoted as R cvd19 of the proposed model. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R cvd19 < 1. On the other hand, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium occurs if R cvd19 > 1. The mathematical analysis of the model is supported using numerical simulations. Moreover, the model's analysis and numerical results prove that the consistent use of face masks would go on a long way in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic.

MeSH terms

  • Basic Reproduction Number
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control
  • COVID-19 / transmission*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Susceptibility
  • Humans
  • Masks
  • Mathematical Concepts
  • Models, Biological*
  • Pandemics / prevention & control
  • Pandemics / statistics & numerical data*
  • SARS-CoV-2*
  • Thailand / epidemiology