Nomograms to Predict Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival in Gastric Signet-Ring Cell Carcinoma

Abstract

Background: The objective of our study was to develop and validate nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with signet-ring cell carcinoma (SRCC) of the stomach.

Methods: Data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A total of 1781 patients were randomly allocated to a training set (n = 1335) and a validation set (n = 446). Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine the prognostic effect of variables. Nomograms were developed to estimate OS and CSS and assessed using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and decision curve analyses (DCA). DCA was utilized to compare the nomograms and the Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) staging system.

Results: Age, race, tumor size, T, N, M stage, and use of surgery and/or radiotherapy were included in the nomograms. C-indexes for OS and CSS were 0.74 and 0.75 in the training set, respectively. C-indexes for OS and CSS were 0.76 and 0.76 in the validation set. Calibration plots and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed good predictive accuracy. According to the decision curve analyses (DCA), the new model was more useful than the TNM staging system.

Conclusions: We developed nomograms to predict OS and CSS in patients with SRCC of the stomach. Nomograms may be a valuable clinical supplement of the conventional TNM staging system.

Keywords: Carcinoma; Nomograms; Prognosis; SEER Program; Signet Ring Cell.