A Bayesian approach for fitting and comparing demographic growth models of radiocarbon dates: A case study on the Jomon-Yayoi transition in Kyushu (Japan)

PLoS One. 2021 May 19;16(5):e0251695. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251695. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Large sets of radiocarbon dates are increasingly used as proxies for inferring past population dynamics and the last few years, in particular, saw an increase in the development of new statistical techniques to overcome some of the key challenges imposed by this kind of data. These include: 1) null hypothesis significance testing approaches based on Monte-Carlo simulations or mark permutations; 2) non-parametric Bayesian modelling approaches, and 3) the use of more traditional techniques such as correlation, regression, and AIC-based model comparison directly on the summed probability distribution of radiocarbon dates (SPD). While the range of opportunities offered by these solutions is unquestionably appealing, they often do not consider the uncertainty and the biases arising from calibration effects or sampling error. Here we introduce a novel Bayesian approach and nimbleCarbon, an R package that offers model fitting and comparison for population growth models based on the temporal frequency data of radiocarbon dates. We evaluate the robustness of the proposed approach on a range of simulated scenarios and illustrate its application on a case study focused on the demographic impact of the introduction of wet-rice farming in prehistoric Japan during the 1st millennium BCE.

Publication types

  • Historical Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Agriculture / history*
  • Bayes Theorem
  • History, Ancient
  • Humans
  • Japan
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Oryza / growth & development*
  • Radiometric Dating*

Grants and funding

ERC was funded by: 1) European Research Council Starting Grant for the project 'Demography, Cultural Change, and the Diffusion of Rice and Millets during the Jōmon-Yayoi transition in prehistoric Japan (ENCOUNTER)', Project N. 801953, PI: Enrico Crema. URL: https://erc.europa.eu/ 2) Philip Leverhulme Prize (Grant Number: PLP-2019-304), URL: https://www.leverhulme.ac.uk/ Neither of the sponsors played a role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript