Prognostic nomogram for the severity of acute organophosphate insecticide self-poisoning: a retrospective observational cohort study

Abstract

Objective: To develop a convenient nomogram for the bedside evaluation of patients with acute organophosphorus poisoning (AOPP).

Design: This was a retrospective study.

Setting: Two independent hospitals in northern China, the First Hospital of Jilin University and the Lequn Hospital of the First Hospital of Jilin University.

Participants: A total of 1657 consecutive patients admitted for the deliberate oral intake of AOPP within 24 hours from exposure and aged >18 years were enrolled between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2018. The exclusion criteria were: normal range of plasma cholinesterase, exposure to any other type of poisonous drug(s), severe chronic comorbidities including symptomatic heart failure (New York Heart Association III or IV) or any other kidney, liver and pulmonary diseases. Eight hundred and thirty-four patients were included.

Primary outcome measure: The existence of severely poisoned cases, defined as patients with any of the following complications: cardiac arrest, respiratory failure requiring ventilator support, hypotension or in-hospital death.

Results: 440 patients from one hospital were included in the study to develop a nomogram of severe AOPP, whereas 394 patients from the other hospital were used for the validation. Associated risk factors were identified by multivariate logistic regression. The nomogram was validated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A nomogram was developed with age, white cells, albumin, cholinesterase, blood pH and lactic acid levels. The AUC was 0.875 (95% CI 0.837 to 0.913) and 0.855 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.9) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration plot for the probability of severe AOPP showed an optimal agreement between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation in both derivation and validation cohorts.

Conclusion: A convenient severity evaluation nomogram for patients with AOPP was developed, which could be used by physicians in making clinical decisions and predicting patients' prognosis.

Keywords: accident & emergency medicine; toxicity; toxicology.