Heart failure (HF) is common in patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (MI), but incidence and predictors of new onset HF after hospitalization for MI are less well characterized. We evaluated patients hospitalized for acute MI without preceding or concurrent HF in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) CathPCI and Chest Pain-MI registries linked with claims data between April 2010 and March 2017. Cumulative incidence and independent predictors of HF after discharge were determined, and a simplified risk score was developed to predict incident HF following MI. In 337,274 patients with acute MI and no history of HF, 8.0% developed incident HF within 1 year after discharge and 18.8% developed HF within 5 years. Significant predictors of HF after MI included advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) (HR 2.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.23-2.46 for Stage IV vs Stage I, and HR 2.18, 95% CI 2.07-2.29 for Stage V vs. Stage I), recurrent MI following index MI (HR 2.24, 95% CI 2.19-2.28), African-American race (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.40-1.48), and diabetes (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.37-1.42). A risk score of 8 variables predicted HF with modest discrimination (optimism-corrected c-statistic 0.64) and good calibration. In conclusion, nearly 1 in 5 patients in a large nationally representative cohort without preceding or concurrent heart failure at time of MI developed incident HF within 5 years after discharge. Advanced CKD and recurrent MI were the strongest predictors of future HF. Increased recognition of specific risk factors for HF may help inform care strategies following MI.
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