Stability and optimal control strategies for a novel epidemic model of COVID-19

Xing Lü; Hong-Wen Hui; Fei-Fei Liu; Ya-Li Bai

doi:10.1007/s11071-021-06524-x

Stability and optimal control strategies for a novel epidemic model of COVID-19

Nonlinear Dyn. 2021;106(2):1491-1507. doi: 10.1007/s11071-021-06524-x. Epub 2021 May 25.

Authors

Xing Lü¹, Hong-Wen Hui², Fei-Fei Liu², Ya-Li Bai²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, 100044 China.
² School of Computer and Communication Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083 China.

Abstract

In this paper, a novel two-stage epidemic model with a dynamic control strategy is proposed to describe the spread of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Combined with local epidemic control policies, an epidemic model with a traceability process is established. We aim to investigate the appropriate control strategies to minimize the control cost and ensure the normal operation of society under the premise of containing the epidemic. This work mainly includes: (i) propose the concept about the first and the second waves of COVID-19, as well as study the case data and regularity of four cities; (ii) derive the existence and stability of the equilibrium, the parameter sensitivity of the model, and the existence of the optimal control strategy; (iii) carry out the numerical simulation associated with the theoretical results and construct a dynamic control strategy and verify its feasibility.

Keywords: COVID-19; Dynamic control strategy; Epidemic model; Optimal control strategy; Stability.