The present study aimed to construct a prognostic nomogram incorporating pre-treatment and post-treatment factors to predict progression-free survival (PFS) after use of sunitinib in patients with metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) following imatinib intolerance or failure. From 2007 to 2018, 109 metastatic GIST patients receiving sunitinib at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taiwan, were enrolled. A prognostic nomogram to predict PFS was developed. Sixty-three male and forty-six female metastatic GIST patients, with a median age of 61 years (range: 15-91 years), received sunitinib. The median PFS for 109 patients is 9.93 months. For pre-treatment factors, male gender, body mass index more than 18.5 kg/m2, no sarcopenia status, higher lymphocyte count, lower platelet/lymphocyte ratio, good performance status, higher sunitinib dose, and non-liver metastasis were significantly associated with favorable PFS. For post-treatment factors, adverse events with hypertension, hand-foot skin reaction, and diarrhea were significantly associated with favorable PFS. However, only eight clinicopathological independent factors for PFS prediction were selected for prognostic nomogram establishment. The calibration curve for probability of PFS revealed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation. High risk patients will experience the lowest PFS. A prognostic nomogram integrating eight clinicopathological factors was constructed to assist prognostic prediction for individual patients with advanced GIST after sunitinib use.
Keywords: KIT genotype; gastrointestinal stromal tumor; hand–foot skin reaction; hypertension; prognostic nomogram model; sunitinib; survival.