Modelling past human internal exposure to lower chlorinated indicator PCBs using proxies - A calculation based on multiple longitudinal PCB analyses

Abstract

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are persistent organic pollutants with former applications in electric transformers, capacitors, hydraulic fluids or joint sealants. While current internal exposure to PCBs can be readily assessed by human biomonitoring, the evaluation of longgone past exposures, in particular the estimation of past exposure to lower chlorinated non-dioxin-like PCB 28, 52 or 101 is limited due to the relatively short biological half-life of these PCB-congeners. This study was aimed to find a proxy that would allow an estimation of the former plasma level for these congeners even several years after exposure cessation. We used biomonitoring data of the German HELPcB cohort with six consecutive follow-up investigations and identified the congeners PCB 66, 74 and 99 as suitable proxies for the congeners of interest. The biological half-lives of the proxies as well as their individual correlation with the plasma levels of PCB 28, 52 and 101 was considered in the calculation models. The correlation coefficients and the inter correlation coefficient 3 (ICC3) between measured and calculated initial values were applied for validation. For external validation purposes we used longitudinal biomonitoring data from two different cohorts with indoor exposure to lower chlorinated PCBs. The backward estimation from current PCB 74 levels to former PCB 28 levels led to an ICC3 of 0.682 and a correlation of rho = 0.724 within the HELPcB cohort. The external validation revealed an ICC3 of 0.723 and a correlation of rho = 0.654. The external validation for PCB 101 was feasible, but measures were not comparably good (ICC3 = 0.460; Rho = 0.516). External validation for PCB 52 was not successful, maybe due to the lower level of burden. Our model shows that a rough estimation of former plasma levels of lower chlorinated PCBs is possible even years after exposure cessation using current measurements of PCB74.

Keywords: Back calculation; Biological half-live; Exposure modelling; HELPcB; Human biomonitoring; Polychlorinated biphenyls.