ENE-COVID nationwide serosurvey served to characterize asymptomatic infections and to develop a symptom-based risk score to predict COVID-19

J Clin Epidemiol. 2021 Nov;139:240-254. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.06.005. Epub 2021 Jun 11.

Abstract

Objectives: To characterize asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and develop a symptom-based risk score useful in primary healthcare.

Study design and setting: Sixty-one thousand ninty-two community-dwelling participants in a nationwide population-based serosurvey completed a questionnaire on COVID-19 symptoms and received an immunoassay for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies between April 27 and June 22, 2020. Standardized prevalence ratios for asymptomatic infection were estimated across participant characteristics. We constructed a symptom-based risk score and evaluated its ability to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Results: Of all, 28.7% of infections were asymptomatic (95% CI 26.1-31.4%). Standardized asymptomatic prevalence ratios were 1.19 (1.02-1.40) for men vs. women, 1.82 (1.33-2.50) and 1.45 (0.96-2.18) for individuals <20 and ≥80 years vs. those aged 40-59, 1.27 (1.03-1.55) for smokers vs. nonsmokers, and 1.91 (1.59-2.29) for individuals without vs. with case contact. In symptomatic population, a symptom-based score (weights: severe tiredness = 1; absence of sore throat = 1; fever = 2; anosmia/ageusia = 5) reached standardized seroprevalence ratio of 8.71 (7.37-10.3), discrimination index of 0.79 (0.77-0.81), and sensitivity and specificity of 71.4% (68.1-74.4%) and 74.2% (73.1-75.2%) for a score ≥3.

Conclusion: The presence of anosmia/ageusia, fever with severe tiredness, or fever without sore throat should serve to suspect COVID-19 in areas with active viral circulation. The proportion of asymptomatics in children and adolescents challenges infection control.

Keywords: COVID-19; General population; Nationwide serosurvey; Prediction model; SARS-CoV-2 infection; Symptoms.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Asymptomatic Infections / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Primary Health Care
  • Risk Factors
  • Seroepidemiologic Studies
  • Spain / epidemiology
  • Young Adult