Baseline Predictors of Glycemic Worsening in Youth and Adults With Impaired Glucose Tolerance or Recently Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in the Restoring Insulin Secretion (RISE) Study

Diabetes Care. 2021 Sep;44(9):1938-1947. doi: 10.2337/dc21-0027. Epub 2021 Jun 15.


Objective: To identify predictors of glycemic worsening among youth and adults with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes in the Restoring Insulin Secretion (RISE) Study.

Research design and methods: A total of 91 youth (10-19 years) were randomized 1:1 to 12 months of metformin (MET) or 3 months of glargine, followed by 9 months of metformin (G-MET), and 267 adults were randomized to MET, G-MET, liraglutide plus MET (LIRA+MET), or placebo for 12 months. All participants underwent a baseline hyperglycemic clamp and a 3-h oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at baseline, month 6, month 12, and off treatment at month 15 and month 21. Cox models identified baseline predictors of glycemic worsening (HbA1c increase ≥0.5% from baseline).

Results: Glycemic worsening occurred in 17.8% of youth versus 7.5% of adults at month 12 (P = 0.008) and in 36% of youth versus 20% of adults at month 21 (P = 0.002). In youth, glycemic worsening did not differ by treatment. In adults, month 12 glycemic worsening was less on LIRA+MET versus placebo (hazard ratio 0.21, 95% CI 0.05-0.96, P = 0.044). In both age-groups, lower baseline clamp-derived β-cell responses predicted month 12 and month 21 glycemic worsening (P < 0.01). Lower baseline OGTT-derived β-cell responses predicted month 21 worsening (P < 0.05). In youth, higher baseline HbA1c and 2-h glucose predicted month 12 and month 21 glycemic worsening, and higher fasting glucose predicted month 21 worsening (P < 0.05). In adults, lower clamp- and OGTT-derived insulin sensitivity predicted month 12 and month 21 worsening (P < 0.05).

Conclusions: Glycemic worsening was more common among youth than adults with IGT or recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes, predicted by lower baseline β-cell responses in both groups, hyperglycemia in youth, and insulin resistance in adults.

Trial registration: NCT01779362 NCT01779375.

Publication types

  • Randomized Controlled Trial
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Blood Glucose
  • Child
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2* / diagnosis
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2* / drug therapy
  • Glucose Intolerance* / diagnosis
  • Glucose Tolerance Test
  • Humans
  • Insulin
  • Insulin Resistance*
  • Insulin Secretion
  • Young Adult


  • Blood Glucose
  • Insulin

Associated data

  • figshare/10.2337/figshare.14368220