Early Convalescent Plasma Therapy and Mortality Among US Veterans Hospitalized With Nonsevere COVID-19: An Observational Analysis Emulating a Target Trial

J Infect Dis. 2021 Sep 17;224(6):967-975. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiab330.

Abstract

Background: Early convalescent plasma transfusion may reduce mortality in patients with nonsevere coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Methods: This study emulates a (hypothetical) target trial using observational data from a cohort of US veterans admitted to a Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) facility between 1 May and 17 November 2020 with nonsevere COVID-19. The intervention was convalescent plasma initiated within 2 days of eligibility. Thirty-day mortality was compared using cumulative incidence curves, risk differences, and hazard ratios estimated from pooled logistic models with inverse probability weighting to adjust for confounding.

Results: Of 11 269 eligible person-trials contributed by 4755 patients, 402 trials were assigned to the convalescent plasma group. Forty and 671 deaths occurred within the plasma and nonplasma groups, respectively. The estimated 30-day mortality risk was 6.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0%-9.7%) in the plasma group and 6.2% (95% CI, 5.6%-7.0%) in the nonplasma group. The associated risk difference was 0.30% (95% CI, -2.30% to 3.60%) and the hazard ratio was 1.04 (95% CI, .64-1.62).

Conclusions: Our target trial emulation estimated no meaningful differences in 30-day mortality between nonsevere COVID-19 patients treated and untreated with convalescent plasma. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04545047.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; convalescent plasma; coronavirus.

Publication types

  • Clinical Trial
  • Observational Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Blood Component Transfusion*
  • COVID-19 / mortality*
  • COVID-19 / therapy*
  • Female
  • Hospitalization
  • Humans
  • Immunization, Passive*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Plasma*
  • Treatment Outcome
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Veterans
  • Young Adult

Supplementary concepts

  • COVID-19 serotherapy

Associated data

  • ClinicalTrials.gov/NCT04545047