Increased Risk of Incident Heart Failure and Death Is Associated With Insulin Resistance in People With Newly Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes: UKPDS 89

Diabetes Care. 2021 Aug;44(8):1877-1884. doi: 10.2337/dc21-0429. Epub 2021 Jun 23.


Objective: Insulin resistance (IR) may mediate heart failure (HF) development. We examined whether IR in people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) increased their risk of a composite outcome of HF or death or of HF alone.

Research design and methods: Insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR) values for UKPDS participants were derived from paired fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and insulin measures. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and multivariable survival models were used to evaluate associations between HOMA2-IR and HF/death or HF alone. We adjusted for potential confounders by including variables with univariate associations (P < 0.1) and by requiring a multivariable P < 0.05.

Results: Of 5,102 UKPDS participants with newly diagnosed T2D, 4,344 had HOMA2-IR measurements. At enrollment, mean (SD) age was 52.5 (8.7) years, with HbA1c 7.2% (1.8%), and BMI 28.8 (5.5) kg/m2, and median (interquartile range) HOMA2-IR was 1.6 (1.1-2.2). HF/death occurred in 1,974 (45.4%) participants (235 first HF events, 1,739 deaths) over a median follow-up of 16.4 years. Multivariable independent associations with HF/death were older age and higher BMI, HOMA2-IR, FPG, waist-to-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, and heart rate as well as sex, race, smoking status, prior atrial fibrillation, and prior microalbuminuria. A doubling of HOMA2-IR was associated with a 5% greater risk of HF/death (relative risk [RR] 1.05 [95% CI 1.01-1.12], P = 0.0029) and a 14% greater risk of HF (RR 1.14, [95% CI 1.02-1.27], P = 0.017).

Conclusions: Patients with newly diagnosed T2D and insulin resistance were more likely to develop HF or die than those more sensitive to insulin.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Blood Glucose
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2* / complications
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2* / epidemiology
  • Heart Failure* / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Insulin
  • Insulin Resistance*
  • Middle Aged
  • Risk Factors


  • Blood Glucose
  • Insulin

Associated data

  • ISRCTN/ISRCTN75451837