Risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent hospital admission and death at different time intervals since first dose of COVID-19 vaccine administration, Italy, 27 December 2020 to mid-April 2021

Euro Surveill. 2021 Jun;26(25):2100507. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.25.2100507.


To assess the real-world impact of vaccines on COVID-19 related outcomes, we analysed data from over 7 million recipients of at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in Italy. Taking 0-14 days post-first dose as reference, the SARS-CoV-2 infection risk subsequently decreased, reaching a reduction by 78% (incidence rate ratios (IRR): 0.22; 95% CI: 0.21-0.24) 43-49 days post-first dose. Similarly, hospitalisation and death risks decreased, with 89% (IRR: 0.11; 95% CI: 0.09-0.15) and 93% (IRR: 0.07; 95% CI: 0.04-0.11) reductions 36-42 days post-first dose. Our results support ongoing vaccination campaigns.

Keywords: COVID-19; Italy; pandemic; vaccination.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 Vaccines
  • COVID-19*
  • Hospitalization
  • Hospitals
  • Humans
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Vaccines*


  • COVID-19 Vaccines
  • Vaccines